Global PV module prices collapse - SolarStar

Only days after the Chinese government announced a substantial withdrawal of support for solar PV on May 31, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) responded with a report forecasting that global PV module  prices  would fall 34% over the course of 2018, estimating that monocrystalline silicon modules would cost only $0.24 per watt by the end of the year.

The note also predicted “market panic” in the short term. Only a few weeks later both dynamics to appear to be at play, according to data by PV Insights EnergyTrend.

As of June 20, PVInsights estimated that average PV module prices had fallen to $0.278 per watt for stard multicrystalline modules, with multi-PERC modules coming in at an average of $0.337 per watt, mono-PERC modules at $0.363 per watt.

Credit: PVInsights

Taken from the PVInsights site

These numbers represent declines from 0.3% to 2.1% over the course of the last week, with the greatest fall for stard multicrystalline products.

PVInsights is not the only company reporting this information. EnergyTrend is also reporting average prices from $0.295 per watt to $0.367 per watt as of June 20, depending on the type of module. However EnergyTrend is seeing these numbers as the result of a much steeper weekly fall, describing price falls of up to 12.5%.

Again the steepest declines were for stard multicrystalline products.

Credit: EnergyTrend

Taken from the EnergyTrend site.

Both of these appear to be global estimates, however in Europe Martin Schachinger of pv  Xchange is also reporting collapsed prices. “After a lack of cheap modules due to artificially induced bottlenecks caused by the market regulations in the USA in Europe the resulting stagnating prices, we now look forward to a module glut which inevitably causes prices to tumble,” notes Schachinger in a post on the pvXchange site (in German).

5-10% fall in U.S. module prices

Current U.S. prices are higher, as global module imports are affected both by Section 201 tariffs Chinese product is subject to anti-dumping countervailing duties imposed on solar cells modules from Taiwan China in 2012 2014.

However, prices appear to be falling in the United States as well. Leni John, the head of procurement at developer Strata Solar, estimates that U.S. module prices have fallen 5-10% over the last month, with greater declines for multicrystalline product than for monocrystalline.

This is in line with BNEF’s previous forecast, as the company noted the liquid nature of global module supply ample capacity in Southeast Asia, Korea Taiwan to serve the U.S. market.

However, John notes that module price declines have not fully offset the impact of Section 201 tariffs, which he says is still affecting the market. “By no means are we back to where we were prior to the tariff being implemented,” John told pv magazine.

Additionally, as has been the case in the past the anticipation of future price declines may lead some developers EPCs to wait on purchases thus delay projects.