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China’s CSP capacity could increase to 3GW by 2015, although more conservative estimates predict it will only grow to 1GW, according to a paper by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The larger figure is based on the predictions of Huatai United Securities and would bring the market value to around RMB45 billion (US$7.15 billion). The lower figure cited in the paper came from the National Energy Administration""s Five-Year Plan.

The academy’s green paper, China""s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change (2012), was released ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which began on 26 November and runs until 7 December in Doha, Qatar.

In addition to the CSP figures, SolarServer reveals that the report also predicts that China’s installed PV capacity will reach 10GW by 2015 including 5GW of large-scale grid connected desert projects, 3GW of grid connected PV projects in urban and rural areas and 2GW of off-grid PV projects.

According to the Chinese Meteorological Administration""s National Solar Energy Resources Evaluation, also cited in the paper, China’s average annual solar radiation amounts to 1,500kWh per square metre. The evaluation also showed that around 3% of the country records over 2,000kWh per square metre of sunlight with the highest level of solar radiation recorded in Southern Tibet at 2,140kWh.

Meanwhile, the report forecasts that BIPV, CSP and CPV will be the leading technologies in the PV sector.

The Chinese government has been driving growth in the domestic solar market and in mid-November it made a fresh call for new PV and BIPV applications from regional governments under the Golden Sun programme to boost PV growth in the country.